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Drowning Venezia

This small project aims to bring attention to the threats posed by rising sea levels due to climate change on coastal regions.

These photos were taken in Venice a week after the highest acqua alta since 1966, of 187cm, during a devastating period that registered only in the month of November 13 high tides over 110cm 3 of which over 150cm and 5 over 130cm, with an annual number of acque alte for the year of 2019 of 26 over 110cm. (Source)

The photos will be accompanied by extracts from the IPCC Special Report on Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (SROCC)  of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change which assesses how oceans and the cryosphere have and will be expected to change due to global warming, risks brought to ecosystems and people, and governance strategies to reduce future risks.

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"Global mean sea level is rising and accelerating. The sum of glacier and ice sheet contributions is now the dominant source of sea level rise. Global mean sea level from tide gauges and altimetry observations increased from 1.4mm a year over the period 1901–1990 to 2.1mm a year over the period 1970–2015 to 3.2mm a year over the period 1993–2015 to 3.6mm a year over the period 2006–2015."

"The dominant cause of global mean sea level rise since 1970 is anthropogenic forcing."


"Non-climatic anthropogenic drivers, including recent and historical demographic and settlement trends and anthropogenic subsidence, have played an important role in increasing low-lying coastal communities’ exposure and vulnerability to sea level rise and extreme sea level events."

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"Future rise in global mean sea level caused by thermal expansion, melting of glaciers and ice sheets and land water storage changes, is strongly dependent on which Representative Concentration Pathway "[set of emission scenarios used to develop predictions]" emission scenario is followed. Sea level rise at the end of the century is projected to be faster under all scenarios, including those compatible with achieving the long-term temperature goal set out in the Paris Agreement. The global mean sea level will rise between 0.43m and 0.84m by 2100 relative to 1986–2005. Beyond 2100, sea level will continue to rise for centuries due to continuing deep ocean heat uptake and mass loss of the Greenland ice sheet and Antarctic ice sheet and will remain elevated for thousands of years."

"Due to projected global mean sea level rise, extreme sea levels that are historically rare (for example, today’s hundred-year event) will become common by 2100 under all representative concentration pathways. Many low-lying cities and small islands at most latitudes will experience such events annually by 2050. Greenhouse gas mitigation envisioned in low-emission scenarios is expected to sharply reduce but not eliminate risk to low-lying coasts and islands from sea level rise and extreme sea level events. Low-emission scenarios lead to slower rates of sea level rise and allow for a wider range of adaptation options."

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"Non-climatic anthropogenic drivers will continue to increase the exposure and vulnerability of coastal communities to future sea level rise and extreme sea level events in the absence of major adaptation efforts compared to today."

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"Risk related to sea level rise (including erosion, flooding and salinization) is expected to significantly increase by the end of this century along all low-lying coasts in the absence of major additional adaptation efforts."

"The expected impacts of sea level rise on coastal ecosystems over the course of the century include habitat contraction, loss of functionality and biodiversity, and lateral and inland migration. Impacts will be exacerbated in cases of land reclamation and where anthropogenic barriers prevent inland migration of marshes and mangroves and limit the availability and relocation of sediment."

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"In the absence of adaptation, more intense and frequent extreme sea level events, together with trends in coastal development will increase expected annual flood damages by 2-3 orders of magnitude by 2100.

 

However, well designed coastal protection is very effective in reducing expected damages and cost efficient for urban and densely populated regions, but generally unaffordable for rural and poorer areas."

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"Choosing and implementing responses to sea level rise presents society with profound governance challenges and difficult social choices, which are inherently political and value laden. The large uncertainties about post 2050 sea level rise, and the substantial impact expected, challenge established planning and decision making practises and introduce the need for coordination within and between governance levels and policy domains.


Despite the large uncertainties about post 2050 sea level rise, adaptation decisions can be made now, facilitated by using decision analysis methods specifically designed to address uncertainty. These methods favor flexible responses and periodically adjusted decisions."

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"Our [IPCC] assessment shows that failure to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions or to adapt to sea level rise will cause major disruptions to many low-lying coastal communities and jeopardize achievement of all UN sustainable development goals and other societal aspirations. Immediate and ambitious Greenhouse gas emissions reduction is necessary (Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2018) to contain the rate and magnitude of sea level rise, and consequently adaptation prospects. Under unmitigated emissions, coastal societies, especially poorer, rural and small islands societies, will struggle to maintain their livelihoods and settlements during the 21st century. Without mitigation, sea levels will continue to rise for centuries, reaching 2.3–5.4m by 2300 and much more beyond, making adaptation extremely challenging, if not impossible, for all low-lying coasts, including more intensively developed urbanized coasts.

 

But even with ambitious mitigation, sea levels will continue to rise, reaching 0.6–1.1m by 2300. Hence, adaptation will continue to be imperative irrespective of the uncertainties about future greenhouse gas emissions and key physical processes such as those determining the Antarctic contribution to sea level rise. Our assessment also shows that all types of responses, from hard protection to ecosystem-based adaptation, advance and retreat, have important and synergistic roles to play in an integrated and sequenced response to sea level rise. The merits of a particular type of response, at a particular point in time, critically depends on the biophysical, cultural, economic, technical, institutional and political context."

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"In this context, the IPCC 5th Assessment Report put forward the vision of Climate Resilient Development Pathways, which is “a continuing process for managing changes in the climate and other driving forces affecting development, combining flexibility, innovativeness, and participative problem solving with effectiveness in mitigating and adapting to climate change”.

Charting Climate Resilient Development Pathways in the face of rising sea level depends on how well mitigation, adaption, and other sustainable development efforts are combined, and the governance challenges introduced by sea level rise are resolved.

 

There are no panaceas for solving these complex issues. However, the wise application of the planning, public participation, conflict resolution, and decision analysis methods assessed    "[in the report]" can help coastal communities, cities and settlements develop locally relevant, enabling and adaptive sea level rise responses. Difficult social choices will nonetheless need to be made as sea levels continue to rise. Given the sea level rise projections outlined here, it is concluded that global resilience and sustainability prospects depend, to a large extent, on how effectively coastal communities develop and implement ambitious, forward-looking adaptation plans in synchrony with drastic mitigation of green house gas emissions."

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If we want our kids and grandkids to be able to experience and see not only Venice but all of the majestic coastal regions of our planet, and limit the incalculable damages that the effects of climate change brings upon us immediate effective action is of the utmost importance, even if it might be too late, as outlined by the IPCC Special Report on Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (SROCC).

I encourage the reading of the Special Report on Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate even if just in part, to be able to have at least a broad understanding of these very real and pressing global issues, especially Chapter 4 of the report titled Sea Level Rise and Implications for Low-Lying Islands, Coasts and Communities.

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